Where did the Keyes surname enter this lineage?

Organize competing hypotheses, falsifiers, evidence requirements, and ranked next steps without converting a favored explanation into a fact.

Competing hypotheses

H1 · Surname entered before CaliforniaWorking

Family already used Keyes/variant before the earliest California record.

Time plausibleName evidence limited

H2 · Surname assigned or adopted in ArizonaOpen

Surname use begins within an Arizona institutional/community record context before California movement.

Oral history relevantDirect record missing

H3 · Later California adoptionAlternative

The surname appears only after arrival in California.

Needs earliest-record test

H4 · Transcription / identity artifactAlternative

Apparent surname continuity results from conflating people or normalizing variant names too aggressively.

Identity resolution needed

Falsifiers

• An earlier well-proven surname inconsistent with Keyes/variants
• Impossible chronology or geography for the proposed person
• DNA/kinship evidence incompatible with an assumed relationship
• Source-lineage collapse showing apparent convergence is derivative

Evidence required / next-best work

Find earliest observed Keyes variant

Search 1840–1860 California + Arizona records

High gain

Inspect church / mission registers

Exact images; record informants and witnesses

High gain

Transcribe oral-history testimony

Separate literal statement from later inference

Pending

Resolve Salvador / Salvatore identity

Compare age, place, household, source roots

Conflict

Document negative searches

Record repository, query, coverage, and observability

Missing

Question history

Sep 8 · Question created from documentary horizon
Sep 9 · H4 added after name-variant conflict
Sep 10 · Search coverage gap detected
All revisions preserved in audit history